European markets look set to end the week on an upbeat note with better than expected German and UK economic data reinforcing a positive week for both German and UK equity markets.
It’s been a rather different story elsewhere in Europe this week with the Spanish market hitting three year lows this morning, while the Italian market touched its lowest levels this year.
The best performing UK sectors have been split between defensive and cyclical sectors with health care and mining stocks both doing well.
Amongst the best performing stocks has been Lloyds Banking Group after a positive broker reiteration. Joining it near the top of the index is hedge fund Man Group paring some of this week’s rather large losses on the back of position adjustment at the end of the week.
Defensive utility stocks are also over-performing after under-performing yesterday with Severn Trent and United Utilities both doing well.
On the downside, technology stocks have slid back led by chip maker ARM Holdings after a less than positive assessment from Jeffries.
Pump maker Weir Group has also slid back towards six month lows on fears that low gas prices could see a fall-off in demand for its valves and pumps.
US shares CFD trading markets opened higher today helped in no small part by some fairly good earnings numbers, as well as the positive bias carried over by European markets this morning.
Microsoft announced stronger Q3 revenues last night while General Electric reported Q1 operating earnings of $0.34c a share above expectations of $0.33c.
The technology sector continued last night’s positive theme with Honeywell announcing Q1 earnings of $1.04c a share well above expectations of $0.99c and also upgraded their forecasts for the year.
Today’s rally looks like capping off a fairly positive week ahead of next week’s eagerly anticipated FOMC rate meeting, where there is some expectation that the Fed could give clues to further easing measures. This is based on the understanding that there will be a press conference scheduled for after the meeting.
In FX CFD trading, the US dollar has had a pretty poor day today with only the Japanese yen performing worse.
Amongst the better performers, apart from the Scandinavian countries has been the pound which has had a great week, one of its best weeks in a month which was capped off by this morning’s surprisingly good retail sales numbers for March. The numbers showed a 1.8% rise month on month, well above expectations of 0.5%.
Some cynics out there have suggested that this was a result of the panic buying of fuel at the end of the quarter. Even if you strip that out, sales were still up 1.5%, driven by sales of clothing and footwear, and the unusually warm weather.
The surprisingly upbeat numbers have raised expectations of a much more positive Q1 GDP report next week.
The single currency has also had a fairly good day, helped by the better than expected German IFO numbers. However, any upside is likely to be tempered by continued rising Spanish bond yields, after they once again hit 6% on the ten year measure today.
The Swiss franc continues to trade close to its peg against the euro and the lack of any movement here suggests that it can only be a matter of time before the market decides to test the resolve of the Swiss National Bank.
A broadly positive day on equity markets as well as a weaker US dollar usually equates to a positive day on oil prices and that has certainly been the case today.
The increase in German business confidence and strong rebound in UK retail sales has definitely helped sentiment today at the end of a negative week for Brent prices, though WTI prices look set to finish the week in the green.
Copper prices have also bounced back today as speculation about possible Chinese easing measures as well as a rebound in the Chinese stock market.
This rebound does need to be set in the context of the three month lows seen earlier this week, given the worries about growth from some of the European economies.
Gold and silver prices have traded pretty quietly today with gold prices continuing to hold above key trend line support at $1,625 from the 2008 lows at $680.
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Market News from Michael Hewson, Analyst, CMC Markets.
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